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August 2015

TRINITY EFFECTS ON CURRENT AND CAPITAL ACCOUNT OF FOREIGN TRADE IN INDIA

By

Dr. S. Rajaswaminathan,

Guest Faculty,

Department of Commerce,

School of Management,

Pondicherry University,

Karaikal Campus,

Karaikal – 609 605.

 

 

Dr. G. Naresh,

Assistant Professor,

Department of Commerce,

School of Management,

Pondicherry University,

Karaikal Campus,

Karaikal – 609 605.

 

&

 

Aurojyoti Kar,

II M.Com (Business Finance),

Department of Commerce,

School of Management,

 Pondicherry University,

Karaikal Campus,

Karaikal – 609 605.

Abstract

Exports and imports of goods and services have grown rapidly since the World War II. Foreign trade is more important for all the countries to increase the foreign exchange holdings of all the economies in the current days. An increasing volume of trade for a country benefits the standard of living of our population as well as economic development in several ways. In spite of the steady growth in international trade, there are some frequent concerns about the impact of exchange rate, inflation rate and MIBOR movements on foreign trade on export and import activities of a country. This paper empirically investigates the impact of exchange rate, inflation and MIBOR volatility on the exports and Imports in terms of current account, capital account and overall account position in India.

Keywords: Foreign Trade, Export, Import, Exchange Rate, Inflation Rate, MIBOR

Introduction

Import and Export have been growing importance of vibrant and emerging economies in the global trade and the share of total output in the globe. In the early 1970s, the collapse of the Bretton Woods System triggered on whether the exchange rate variability is a curb of global trade. Recently, 1997 Asian financial crisis and 2008 global financial crisis were rekindled on exchange rate, inflation and MIBOR effects on trade; thereby the overall trade activity is an aggregation of decisions of individual firms of any nation. India has launched its policy reform agenda and implemented a host of liberalization reforms, primarily targeting the foreign exchange market and the tradable sectors. India shifted to a more market oriented exchange rate system through devaluations and deregulations in 1992-93. Since then the exchange rate has mostly been under a managed floating regime with the Reserve Bank of India intervening from time to time to stabilize the nominal exchange rate.

An  exchange  rate  is  the  price  of  one  currency  in  terms  of  another. Exchange  rate,  like  price  of  any  other  commodity,  is  determined  in  a market called Foreign Exchange market. Foreign exchange market is an international financial market meant for exchange of various national currencies. It is said that the Sun never sets on the foreign currency market like on the erstwhile British Empire. Real  exchange  rate  is  commonly  known  as  a  measure  of  international competitiveness.  It  is  also  known  as  index  of  competitiveness  of  currency  of  any country  and  an  inverse  relationship  between  this  index  and  competitiveness  exists. Lower the value of this index in any country, higher the competitiveness of currency of that country will be.

Inflation not only creates problems within the economy, but also in the sphere of external trade of a country, that is, countries trade balances with the rest of the World. Country’s trade relations with the other countries involve exports and imports of goods and services and how much a country will export and import depends, amongst other thing, on the domestic price level and variation in it, that is, the rate of inflation.

The interest rate at which banks can borrow funds, in marketable size, from other banks in the Indian interbank market is called MIBOR. The Mumbai Interbank Offered Rate (MIBOR) is calculated everyday by the National Stock Exchange of India (NSEIL) as a weighted average of lending rates of a group of banks, on funds lent to first-class borrowers. The MIBOR was launched on June 15, 1998 by the Committee for the Development of the Debt Market, as an overnight rate. Since the launch, MIBOR rates have been used as benchmark rates for the majority of money market deals made in India.

Objectives & Methodology

The study with the objective of the exchange rate, inflation rate and MIBOR effects on foreign trade with respect to import and export of current account, capital account and overall positions of the trade. Using annual time series data, the Multiple Regression analysis has been carried out for the period 2005-06 to 2013-14.  The study has taken independent variables i.e., exchange rate, inflation rate and MIBOR and dependent variables i.e., exports and imports. Hence in order to understand the effects of exchange rate, inflation rate and MIBOR changes on trade balance, it is important to analyze how exchange rate, inflation rate and MIBOR fluctuations affect the global trade.

Analysis and Discussion

The multiple correlation co-efficient indicates that the correlation among the independent and dependent variables is positive and the statistic, which ranges from   -1 to +1, does not indicate statistical significance of this correlation. The analysis of variance information provides the breakdown of the total variation of the dependent variable in to the explained and unexplained portions. The SS Regression is the variation explained by the regression line; SS Residual is the variation of the dependent variable that is not explained. The F-statistic is calculated using the ratio of the mean square regression (MS Regression) to the mean square residual (MS Residual). The results of the estimated regression line include the estimated coefficients, the standard error of the coefficients, the calculated t-statistic, the corresponding p-value, and the bounds of both the 95% confidence intervals.

Table 1: Multiple Regression Analysis of Trinity effects on Current Account Credit

Regression Statistics

Multiple R

0.900387006

R Square

0.810696761

Adjusted R Square

0.697114818

Standard Error

1201880.632

Observations

9

ANOVA

 

df

SS

MS

F

Significance F

Regression

3

3.09309E+13

1.03103E+13

7.13755

0.029529

Residual

5

7.22259E+12

1.44452E+12

Total

8

3.81535E+13

 

 

Co-

efficients

Standard

Error

t Stat

P-value

Lower 95%

Upper 95%

Intercept

13431242

3621940

3.708

0.013

4120746

22741737

Exchange rate

-341419

88271

-3.867

0.011

-568328

-114511

Inflation

716223

194372

3.684

0.014

216572

1215874

MIBOR

-108087

263202

-0.410

0.698

-784670

568495

Source: Secondary Data | Computed by Researcher

The above table 1, shows that the multiple correlation co-efficient is 0.900. The coefficient of determination, R2, is 81.06% and it means that close to 81% of the variation in the dependent variable (Export) is explained by the independent variables (Exchange Rate, Inflation Rate and Mumbai Interbank offered Rate). The adjusted R-square, a measure of explanatory power, is 0.6971. The standard error of the regression is 1201880.632, which is an estimate of the variation of the observed Export in billions, about the regression line. The critical F value is 7.137 for 3 and 5 degrees of freedom with 5% significance level. The independent variables that statistically significant in explaining the variation in the export as indicated by the calculated p-values of Exchange Rate, Inflation Rate that are less than the significance level of 5% and Mumbai Interbank offered Rate is less than the significance level of 10%. The relationship between export and Inflation Rate is positive. The coefficient of 716223 indicates, on average, an additional export increases by 716223. The Exchange Rate and Mumbai Interbank offered Rate are negatively related to the export. The coefficient of the Exchange Rate and Mumbai Interbank offered Rate are -341419 and -108087 indicates, on average, an additional export decreases by -341419 and -108087 respectively.

 

Table 2: Multiple Regression Analysis of Trinity effects on Current Account Debit

Regression Statistics

Multiple R

0.904545811

R Square

0.818203125

Adjusted R Square

0.709125

Standard Error

1163477.784

Observations

9

ANOVA

 

df

SS

MS

F

Significance F

Regression

3

3.05E+13

1.02E+13

7.501074

0.02677

Residual

5

6.77E+12

1.35E+12

Total

8

3.72E+13

 

 

Co-

efficients

Standard

Error

t Stat

P-value

Lower 95%

Upper 95%

Intercept

13676381

3506212

3.900

0.011

4663377

22689385

Exchange rate

-335548

85450

-3.926

0.011

-555207

-115890

Inflation

691287

188162

3.673

0.014

207601

1174973

MIBOR

-154438

254792

-0.606

0.570

-809403

500526

Source: Secondary Data | Computed by Researcher

 

The above table 2, shows that the multiple correlation co-efficient is 0.904. The coefficient of determination, R2, is 81.80% and it means that close to 82% of the variation in the dependent variable (Export) is explained by the independent variables (Exchange Rate, Inflation Rate and Mumbai Interbank offered Rate). The adjusted R-square, a measure of explanatory power, is 0.709. The standard error of the regression is 1163477.784. The critical F value is 7.501 for 3 and 5 degrees of freedom with 5% significance level. The independent variables that statistically significant in explaining the variation in the export as indicated by the calculated p-values of Exchange Rate, Inflation Rate that are less than the significance level of 5% and Mumbai Interbank offered Rate is less than the significance level of 10%. The relationship between export and Inflation Rate is positive. The coefficient of 691287 indicates, on average, an additional export increases by 691287. The Exchange Rate and Mumbai Interbank offered Rate are negatively related to the export. The coefficient of the Exchange Rate and Mumbai Interbank offered Rate are -335548 and -154438 indicates, on average, an additional export decreases by -335548.8102 and -154438 respectively.

 

Table 3: Multiple Regression Analysis of Trinity effects on Capital Account Credit

Regression Statistics

Multiple R

0.917017

R Square

0.84092

Adjusted R Square

0.745472

Standard Error

934170.5

Observations

9

ANOVA

 

df

SS

MS

F

Significance F

Regression

3

2.3065E+13

7.69E+12

8.810256

0.01935

Residual

5

4.3634E+12

8.73E+11

Total

8

2.7429E+13

 

 

Co-

efficients

Standard

Error

t Stat

P-value

Lower 95%

Upper 95%

Intercept

11411170

2815179.84

4.053

0.009

4174520

18647820

Exchange rate

-289190

68609

-4.215

0.008

-465556

-112823

Inflation

620835

151077

4.10

0.00

232477

1009193

MIBOR

-118334

204575

-0.578

0.588

-644213

407545

Source: Secondary Data | Computed by Researcher

 

The above table 3, shows that the multiple correlation co-efficient is 0.917. The coefficient of determination, R2, is 84.09% and it means that close to 84% of the variation in the dependent variable (Export) is explained by the independent variables (Exchange Rate, Inflation Rate and Mumbai Interbank offered Rate). The adjusted R-square, a measure of explanatory power, is 0.745. The standard error of the regression is 934170. The critical F value is 8.810 for 3 and 5 degrees of freedom with 5% significance level. The independent variables that statistically significant in explaining the variation in the export as indicated by the calculated p-values of Exchange Rate, Inflation Rate that are less than the significance level of 5% and Mumbai Interbank offered Rate is less than the significance level of 10%. The relationship between export and Inflation Rate is positive. The coefficient of 620835.3 indicates, on average, an additional export increases by 620835.3. The Exchange Rate and Mumbai Interbank offered Rate are negatively related to the export. The coefficient of the Exchange Rate and Mumbai Interbank offered Rate are –289190 and -118334 indicates, on average, an additional export decreases by –289190 and -118334 respectively.

 

Table 4: Multiple Regression Analysis of Trinity effects on Capital Account Debit

Regression Statistics

Multiple R

0.905826

R Square

0.82052

Adjusted R Square

0.712832

Standard Error

2236095

Observations

9

ANOVA

 

df

SS

MS

F

Significance F

Regression

3

1.14E+14

3.81E+13

7.619432

0.02595

Residual

5

2.5E+13

5E+12

Total

8

1.39E+14

 

 

Co-

efficients

Standard

Error

t Stat

P-value

Lower 95%

Upper 95%

Intercept

26223333

6738608

3.891

0.011

8901189

43545476

Exchange rate

-652210

164228.5

-3.971

0.010

-1074372

-230046

Inflation

1354643

361629

3.745

0.013

425043

2284241

MIBOR

-264624

489687

-0.540

0.612

-1523405

994156

Source: Secondary Data | Computed by Researcher

 

The above table 4, shows that the multiple correlation co-efficient is 0.905. The coefficient of determination, R2, is 82.05% and it means that close to 82% of the variation in the dependent variable (Export) is explained by the independent variables (Exchange Rate, Inflation Rate and Mumbai Interbank offered Rate). The adjusted R-square, a measure of explanatory power, is 0.712. The standard error of the regression is 2236095. The critical F value is 7.619 for 3 and 5 degrees of freedom with 5% significance level. The independent variables that statistically significant in explaining the variation in the export as indicated by the calculated p-values of Exchange Rate, Inflation Rate that are less than the significance level of 5% and Mumbai Interbank offered Rate is less than the significance level of 10%. The relationship between export and Inflation Rate is positive. The coefficient of 1354643 indicates, on average, an additional export increases by 1354643. The Exchange Rate and Mumbai Interbank offered Rate are negatively related to the export. The coefficient of the Exchange Rate and Mumbai Interbank offered Rate are -652210 and -264624 indicates, on average, an additional export decreases by -652210 and -264624 respectively.

Table 5: Multiple Regression Analysis of Trinity effects on Overall Account Credit

Regression Statistics

Multiple R

0.905825732

R Square

0.820520256

Adjusted R Square

0.71283241

Standard Error

2236094.65

Observations

9

ANOVA

 

df

SS

MS

F

Significance F

Regression

3

1.14294E+14

3.81E+13

7.619432 

0.02595 

Residual

5

2.50006E+13

5E+12

Total

8

1.39295E+14

 

 

Co-

efficients

Standard

Error

t Stat

P-value

Lower 95%

Upper 95%

Intercept

26223332

6738608

3.891

0.011

8901189

43545476

Exchange rate

-652209

164228

-3.971

0.010

-1074372

-23004

Inflation

1354642

361629

3.745937

0.01335

425043476

2284241

MIBOR

-264624

489687

-0.540

0.612

-1523405

994156

Source: Secondary Data | Computed by Researcher

 

The above table 5, shows that the multiple correlation co-efficient is 0.905. The coefficient of determination, R2, is 82.05% and it means that close to 82% of the variation in the dependent variable (Export) is explained by the independent variables (Exchange Rate, Inflation Rate and Mumbai Interbank offered Rate). The adjusted R-square, a measure of explanatory power, is 0.712. The standard error of the regression is 2236094. The critical F value is 7.619 for 3 and 5 degrees of freedom with 5% significance level. The independent variables that statistically significant in explaining the variation in the export as indicated by the calculated p-values of Exchange Rate, Inflation Rate that are less than the significance level of 5% and Mumbai Interbank offered Rate is less than the significance level of 10%. The relationship between export and Inflation Rate is positive. The coefficient of 1354642 indicates, on average, an additional export increases by 1354642. The Exchange Rate and Mumbai Interbank offered Rate are negatively related to the export. The coefficient of the Exchange Rate and Mumbai Interbank offered Rate are -652209 and -264624 indicates, on average, an additional export decreases by -652209  and -264624 respectively.

 

Table 6: Multiple Regression Analysis of Trinity effects on Overall Account Debit

Regression Statistics

Multiple R

0.909039

R Square

0.826351

Adjusted R Square

0.722162

Standard Error

2131660

Observations

9

ANOVA

 

df

SS

MS

F

Significance F

Regression

3

1.08118E+14

3.60395E+13

7.931264

0.02395277 

Residual

5

2.27199E+13

4.54398E+12

Total

8

1.30838E+14

 

 

Co-

efficients

Standard

Error

t Stat

P-value

Lower

95%

Upper 95%

Intercept

24777962

6423888

3.857

0.011914

8264829

41291094

Exchange rate

-632678

156558

-4.0411

0.009

-1035124

-230232

Inflation

1347275

344740

3.908

0.011

461091

2233458

MIBOR

-217816

466816

-0.466

0.660

-1417807

982174

Source: Secondary Data | Computed by Researcher

 

The above table 6, shows that the multiple correlation co-efficient is 0.909. The coefficient of determination, R2, is 82.60% and it means that close to 83% of the variation in the dependent variable (Export) is explained by the independent variables (Exchange Rate, Inflation Rate and Mumbai Interbank offered Rate). The adjusted R-square, a measure of explanatory power, is 0.722. The standard error of the regression is 2131660. The critical F value is 7.931 for 3 and 5 degrees of freedom with 5% significance level. The independent variables that statistically significant in explaining the variation in the export as indicated by the calculated p-values of Exchange Rate, Inflation Rate that are less than the significance level of 5% and Mumbai Interbank offered Rate is less than the significance level of 10%. The relationship between export and Inflation Rate is positive. The coefficient of 1347275 indicates, on average, an additional export increases by 1347275. The Exchange Rate and Mumbai Interbank offered Rate are negatively related to the export. The coefficient of the Exchange Rate and Mumbai Interbank offered Rate are -632678 and -217816 indicates, on average, an additional export decreases by -632678 and -217816 respectively.

Conclusion

The exchange rate and MIBOR have significant negative impact on exports and imports, but inflation rate has significant positive impact on exports and imports of current account, capital account and overall account in India. It reveals that these factors are playing crucial role on import and export of our economy. The government and the authority should concentrate on the control over volatility in exchange rate, inflation rate, MIBOR will give positive impact on foreign trade in India. Hence, the stability in exchange rate, inflation rate, MIBOR will increase the export and decrease the import activities in India.

References

Bhanumurthy, N. R., & Sharma, C. (2013). Does Weak Rupee Matter for India’s Manufacturing Exports?. National Institute of Public Finance and Policy Working Paper, (2013-115).

 

Kroner, K. F., & Lastrapes, W. D. (1993). The impact of exchange rate volatility on international trade: reduced form estimates using the GARCH-in-mean model. Journal of International Money and Finance, 12(3), 298-318.

 

Mallick, S., & Marques, H. (2008). Exchange rate transmission into industry-level export prices: A tale of two policy regimes in India. IMF Staff Papers, 83-108.

 

McKenzie, M. D. (1999). The impact of exchange rate volatility on international trade flows. Journal of economic Surveys, 13(1), 71-106.

 

Mousavi, S., & Leelavathi, D. S. (2013). Agricultural Export and Exchange Rates in India: The granger causality Approach. International Journal of Scientific and Research Publications, 3(2), 1-8.

 

Pyne, P. K., & Roy, S. S. (2009, June). EXCHANGE RATE PASS-THROUGH IN INDIA: AN EXPLORATION WITH SECTORAL IMPORT PRICES. In DEGIT Conference Papers (No. c014_038). DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.

 
 

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